The
most upsetting thing about Russia blundering into the Syrian Civil War is that
things had been going so well!
Story so far.
Before
the war Bashar al-Assad was the essential partner for peace and a “reformer”
whose legitimacy was continually enhanced by the stream of western leaders sucking
up to him.
This
all changed when the “Arab Spring” came to town in March, 2011 in the form of
street protests against the Assad regime. These were broken up in the time-honoured
way of tyrants with bullets and repression, but this time there were large
scale desertions from the security forces which gave rise to the Free Syria Army (FSA) and civil war.
There
was a brief period in 2011 after the Syrian Civil War broke out that decisive
US intervention could have toppled Assad and replaced him with an identikit “friendly” Arab strongman from
among the generals of the FSA. That was the absolute best outcome to be got
from the turmoil. Syria, a close ally to Iran and Russia, could have been detached
to the western camp. But Obama doesn’t do decisive and so confined himself to moral
posturing. This resulted in the almost casual comment that he would intervene
if Assad used chemical weapons.
After
Assad (probably) used chemical weapons in 2013 Obama twisted in the wind for a
couple of weeks in an agony of indecision. Clearly, he had assumed that his
warning would be enough to deter Assad and hadn’t dreamed he’d have to back it
up. When the agonising was done both
allies and enemies gaped in astonishment as the American president actually backed
away from military confrontation with a tottering, tin-pot dictator.
Then
to save the face that had been irretrievably lost Obama decided two years too
late to arm the Syrian opposition. First the Pentagon was tasked with training
a “moderate” rebel force to join the fray. The final unravelling of this fantasy of getting Syria in touch with
its feminine side came just last month with the stunning admission (below) from Gen.
Lloyd Austen that this $500m program had resulted in just 4 or 5 individuals
actually fighting in Syria. The rest are apparently dead, AWOL, or decamped to
Islamist groups.
Incredible is the new black
Another
more pragmatic approach was to unleash the CIA to arm and train those actually
fighting Assad in the FSA. This has resulted in a pretty effective force that has
actually been gaining ground against the Syrian Army.
The
only problem is that most of the FSA rebels that the US arms and supports are Islamist
nut-jobs. Even back in 2013 a senior military official disclosed to CBS that more than half of the
Free Syria Army are “extreme Islamists” and this proportion is “growing by the
day”. This is the reality on the ground in Syria. Without much in the way of
Syrian national identity to fight for all that remains is money, clan and above
all Islam. All those western-looking, secular reformers that took to the
streets in March 2011 ran for it when the firing started and the weird beards
arrived. With regard to America’s aid to the “moderate” rebels Syria expert
Joshua Landis has estimated that between 60 and 80% of US military aid has
ended up in the hands of Al Qaeda.
Now
the war is between Assad and the Islamists and we are allied with the Islamists including the perpetrators of 9/11.
It all sounds like a wacky conspiracy theory that cannot possibly be true. But
it is, and for a simple reason. After his “red line” humiliation Obama vowed
that Assad must go. The fact that the only people on the ground that could effect
that were Islamists of one type or another obviously wasn’t a deal breaker.
Russia Strikes
This
US operation was on the verge of success pre-Russian intervention. That is if success is defined as revenge
for Obama’s hurt feelings and the victory of radical Islam creating yet another
anarchic hellhole like Libya. Putin intervened not only to stick it to Obama
but because Assad is on the edge of the abyss. He controls just 20% of his own
country and the very well-funded and equipped rebels are threatening his
capital. Now the Russians are testing the faith of America’s looney tune allies
as well as ISIS all bets are off.
Future
Assad
even with a couple of dozen Russian aircraft and arms shipments behind him still
can’t win. All that Putin’s intervention is likely to achieve is further stalemate,
a spike in demand for doe-eyed virgins, and millions more refugees. Assad can
only win if Putin or Iran sends a very considerable ground force to do his
fighting for him which doesn’t seem likely.
That’s
a shame because victory for the blood-soaked dictator looks like the best
outcome for Syria and even for us in the West.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/609757/Putin-ISIS-Islamic-State-Syria-Raqqa-troops-soldiers-air-strike-jets-military
ReplyDeletePutin... defender of the western people...maybe? it's the US-EU-Turkey and the Saudis that want shot of Assad...for their pipeline to Eurooe, Iran-Russia- Syria want their pipeline to Europe.
Personally I'd like to see the Saudis shafted!
Not exactly "defender of the western people". It just so happens that on Syria Russian national interests coincide with ours, The stunning aspect of the whole story is that our effectively being allies with Al Qaeda is not being reported by our "free" press.
DeleteYou would think that the masterminds of 9/11. The attack that got through the worlds most sophisticated defence system with stanley knives and invisible passports could overthrow a tin-pot nobody like Assad.
ReplyDeletealthough it provokes many thoughts and demands discerning into the matter, it is clear that Russia allows itself too much a the international arena. They are scant foothold for their neighbors as well1
ReplyDelete