Sunday, 12 July 2015

Royal Navy Half Life

  
                                          Type 45, capable but can't be everywhere



The Royal Navy has a half life of about 20 years. Every couple of decades the number of warships deployed falls by about half. Take for example the workhorses of the fleet, its destroyers and frigates. In 1960 there were 156; by 1980 it had fallen to 64; another 20 years later in 2000 it was 32.

Now it’s 19!

That 19 comprises 13 frigates and 6 destroyers. Now, of course, it’s true that those 19 are far more capable than the types from a generation back, but with the best will in the world they can’t be in two places at once. And If you bear in mind that about half the fleet is training or undergoing repairs and refits at any one time you get to the bottom line. The Royal Navy meets its many responsibilities with just 9 or 10 major surface ships. That’s why there is no permanent Royal Navy presence in the Horn of Africa to tackle the spreading piracy. That’s why our interests are not being protected around the Falkland Islands. That’s why the Spanish humiliate us on a regular basis in the straits of Gibraltar. That’s why our admirals’ bowels loosen when required to dispatch a ship to intercept the latest Russian provocation in the Channel. In fact given that we now have more admirals than ships perhaps we should consider sending one of them in a speedboat instead. Take that Putin!

The reason for this dire state of affairs is twofold.

On the one hand everybody knows that since the fall of the Soviet Union defence spending has not been a priority. Both Conservative and Labour governments have been raiding the defence kitty for 25 years to fund social programmes. Consequently, since 1990 defence spending has fallen from around 4% of GNP to less than 2% this year.

But that’s only part of the explanation because on the other hand 2% of a £1.6 trillion economy stills translates to the world’s fifth largest defence budget of around £40 billion a year. The other part of the problem is how we spend it.

There is no better illustration of the pathetic inadequacy of recent defence procurement than the story of the Type 45 destroyer. Originally 12 ships of this type were planned at a cost of £600m each including development costs. Then in 2008 to save money the Labour government cut the order first to 8 and then to 6 ships thereby increasing the unit cost to a cool billion each. Faced with the two alternatives of the Royal Navy getting either 6 Type 45 destroyers for £6bn or 12 for £7.2bn the British government decided to go for half the already inadequate number of Type 45s for 83% of the cost for 12. Whilst it’s true that running costs would have been higher, we would also possess enough escort destroyers for the two carriers which that same Labour administration ordered. Consequently their use will be restricted to operations only in friendly waters. In other words our lack of frigates and destroyers make our new carriers next to useless.

As regards the carriers themselves clearly their efficacy in war seems a low priority. This is the only explanation for the fact that they will not be nuclear powered or possess catapults (so they cannot carry the naval version of the F-35!). And as regards the price tag, fully one quarter of the £6.2bn cost is due to the coalition government’s decision to delay their construction. Sadly the story of the Type 45 destroyer and the carriers  are not the exception but the rule in British defence procurement.

If unlike me you are inclined to give the government the benefit of the doubt and accept the explanation of budgetary pressure behind the cutbacks in the navy you might be a little dismayed to hear about the procurement of the new RAF fleet of air to air refuelling tankers. To please the EU we decided to adapt the Airbus 330 for the task and gave it the same catchy name as the NASA space probes: Voyager. It was only after they were needed for duty over Afghanistan that the travel limitations of this Voyager became apparent. It turned out that they lacked the combat specifications for a “high threat” environment, so they had to dispatch the soon to be decommissioned TriStar tankers instead. Total cost of this boondoggle £13bn. No, really! £13bn. Or in other words it cost more than 12 Type 45 destroyers with our two new aircraft carriers thrown in. And that’s for just 14  tanker aircraft.

Overall the International Institute for Strategic Studies estimates that the 8% real cut in defence spending by the last coalition government resulted in a 20 to 30% loss in combat capability.

The perverse and wilful incompetence behind the evisceration of the Royal Navy along with the other services suggests treasonous intent. After all If Britain were run by fanatical enemy moles committed to our destruction would they have acted any different?
                 
But it’s not treason for the simple reason that the people who did it don’t have the sort of burning hatred for Britain that inspired a Philby or a Maclean. They are not treasonous; they just don’t care.

That’s where we come in. It’s our job to make them care.


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8 comments:

  1. Sorry to be sort of off topic. Are the RNS still running a ferry service for African boat people. Are they still landing in Italy? Either they have stopped coming or reporting of it has stopped/. Does anyone know which?

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  2. Sorry, I've heard nothing. I see Bulwark is back. I don't think the Bulwark rescue story was quite as popular as they hoped it would be. Particularly after those "saved" started turning up at Calais. I've got a feeling that our 3 amphibious helicopter carriers will be steering clear of the Med for a while.

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  3. You forgot to mention the other factor in the hideous cost of warship procurement, BAE Systems (also known as BritishWasteofSpace). They own the rather pathetic remnants of our once proud shipbuilding industry and have a monopoly on any Government orders which they fully exploit. The stupid British Government has paid more per aircraft carrier then the US Government paid for the fully armoured and nuclear powered USS Ronald Reagan weighing in at over 100,000 tonnes. But then I suppose we are misunderstanding the purpose of the ships. They were build to create jobs in Gordon Browns constituency just prior to an election. They were never intended to go to war so the quality of the end product was irrelevant. The MOD has finally used some common sense and ordered 4 RFA supply vessels from South Korea saving itself a small fortune having learnt its lesson previously with the two horrendously late and overpriced ships ordered from the now defunct Swan Hunter.

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  4. You're absolutely right. I left that out because I wanted to focus the article on the govt's idiocy. The endless penny pinching which saves a small fraction of what they subsequently waste when they cut orders, change specs or delay construction. BAE does need to be tamed but I disagree with building combat ships overseas. Call it sentimentality and you'd be right, but there are also security implications.

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  5. John many thanks for replying to my post.

    I know its painful but the correct decision would have been to swallow our pride, accept we are no longer a major shipbuilding nation and order the two aircraft carriers from an east coast US yard at half the cost and twice the specification. Nuclear powered, fully armoured with catapults. The money saved could have been used to provide additional escort vessels ordered from British yards. We could also have ordered the vastly cheaper but proven and very capable F18 Super Eagle and the Lockheed AEW Hawkeye. By shopping around prudently we could then have build a quite impressive strike force. This has been a tragic wasted opportunity, the politicians have made a complete pigs ear and wasted a fortune. We now have two vastly overpriced large container ships (built to merchant rather then naval standard) painted grey with a flight deck. No catapults and no capability for an Airborne Early Warning fixed wing aircraft. Our US Navy allies are privately appalled at our incompetence, so much so that they even offered their new magnetic catapults at cost in an attempt to get the British Government to make the right choice. BAE systems however could not make the necessary changes for less then 2 billion pounds per boat despite the originally contract stating they should be easily convertible.
    Is it any wonder that when Cunard ordered their new Queen Mary 2 they took one look at the dire state of British shipbuilder and promptly ordered overseas in France. Way too risky for a private company wishing to remain solvent, only the stupid British Government would take on that kind of risk with the taxpayer underwriting the inevitable financial consequences. Gordon Browns grotesque job creation scheme and parting gift to the Royal Navy. Yep a complete pigs ear.

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  6. You have a strong argument. Bearing in mind what's happened it would have been better as you say to have the carriers built in the States. But that still wouldn't have solved the main problem which is our procurement process. BAE only gets away with it because our govt and Ministry of Defence are so patently useless. Maybe we should outsource them too?

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    1. John, I completely agree with you as regards the MOD and its inept procurement process. This appears to have defeated successive Governments and you only need to look across the channel at France to see how much better value for money they appear to be getting for a similar seized defence budget.

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    2. Great point about France. Much bigger army, navy and airforce for a very similar budget. When I think of the terrible waste and incompetance I get nostalgic for the death penalty (tongue slightly in cheek).

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